Friday, September 3, 2010

Crystal Ball Predictions ( Sabato's ) And Mine.......

Mine first.....
House D-rats lose 60 seats....
Senate flips, Republicans pick up 10 seats....( I am a cockeyed optimist, heh. )
Obama doesn't notice ( still playing golf 4 days a week ) and thinks selling their "stimulus" bill will finally spur some growth.....
Michelle ( ah hell, I will be nice ) but she does get a new wardrobe adviser.....
Arizona ( and America's sheriff ) says screw you again to Holder.....( America loves Arizona)
That victory mosque thingy? Baddddd for all D-rats. Gets shelved before the election.( too little, too late )

Now for someone who does this for a living....
Larry Sabato expects some changes too.....

Given what we can see at this moment , Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net . This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.
Conservative in their estimates of GOP gains? Lovely.
In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react).  GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.
We all know 60 days is a long time in politics, anything can happen. My bets are on it being an anti-Obama bloodbath ( figuratively ).

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